ANNEX I
User Scenarios and Associated Services
Scenarios
GOOS and GCOS are operational systems designed to meet the needs of a wide range of users including government departments, industry, the scientific community and the general public. In order to define what data have to be collected, and in what manner, it is useful to start by imagining scenarios representing a range of user needs, and envisaging the services and products required to meet those needs. This then leads in turn to a statement of requirements in terms of the type and quality of data required as the basis for those services and products.
Scenarios have been used successfully in the GCOS Data and Information Management Plan (GCOS-13, April 1995) to illustrate what users are likely to require and expect from an information system in the early years of the next century. A number of scenarios can be envisaged, representing the interests of a range of end users. Different user groups are likely to be interested not only in different phenomena, but also in different time scales. For some users, interannual change is likely to be important; for others seasonal change may be the key interest; for yet others short term change (e.g. storms) are likely to generate the most interest.
Scenario 1: To improve its local flood defences a coastal zone management group needs to know how water levels may vary along a particular stretch of coast, especially in storms, both seasonally and from year to year. Much the same information will be required by the local managers of ports and harbours, not only for flood defence but also for predicting and controlling access to loading and unloading. Water levels may vary because of tides, changes in sea level caused by climate change, surges caused by storms, or changes in wave height, for instance, all of which may be independent, but which may be combined, and all of which can be monitored, modelled and predicted.
Scenario 2: To plan national or regional energy supplies efficiently and effectively for the long term, major power suppliers and the energy companies or agencies who supply them need predictions of how long and cold winter conditions are likely to be year to year for a decade or more ahead. Much the same information, including the length and temperature of the growing season, is required by the agriculture sector. Monitoring and predicting ocean circulation and its control on the heat flux is central to obtaining the required forecasts. In the North Atlantic, for instance, this would require improved definition and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Scenario 3: To plan the infrastructure for national or regional water supplies efficiently and effectively for the long term, major water suppliers need predictions of rainfall year by year for a decade or so ahead. Improved forecasts of rainfall, and hence water supply, based on ocean and atmospheric measurements and models, will benefit industry, help farmers determine what and when to plant, and enable public health problems to be anticipated.
Scenario 4: The growth in ocean trade, the increasing automation of ships, and the development of super-giant bulk and oil carriers demands much improved planning of ocean routes to take advantage of knowledge of the changing positions and strengths of ocean currents and the eddies and storm tracks with which they are associated. This requires greatly improved weather warnings and forecasts and ocean now-casts along with improved short-term ocean forecasts of ocean conditions and climate.
Scenario 5: Increasing development of oil and gas fields in deep water far offshore and in hostile Arctic conditions demands increasingly accurate forecasts of ocean and climate conditions so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations. Increasingly production will take place from well-heads at or under the seabed, but estimates of maximum wave height will still be required where production takes place from platforms, and ice forecasts for the longer term will be essential in polar regions. Needed measurements include, among others: wave height; ice dynamics; and current strength and direction.
Scenario 6: Farmers, fishermen and coastal zone managers need improved forecasts of the large interannual perturbations forced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which controls cyclical droughts, floods and ocean upwelling events around the Pacific basin and further afield. Continuation of ocean monitoring from the TAO array in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, backed by satellite observations of sea surface temperature and ocean modelling is regarded as essential if skill in ENSO forecasting is to be maintained and improved. Similar thermal oscillations in the tropical Atlantic but on longer time-scales appear to be related to the droughts which cause widespread devastation to the peoples of the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa, calling for development of a similar monitoring and prediction system.
Scenario 7: Managers of many different kinds around the northern Indian Ocean require improved medium to long range forecasts of the seasonal and interannual variability in the monsoon system, which can wreak havoc on coastal zones and agriculture alike, as well as being associated with massive flooding in places like Bangladesh. Measurements are needed to support an appropriate forecasting system.
Scenario 8: Port managers need information about circulation in support of safe navigation and environmental protection in harbours and their surrounding or approach areas. Coastal circulation is partly forced by the circulation in the outside open ocean basin, partly by tidal effects, local topography and hydrographic conditions. Pollution emergency response systems similarly depend on a good knowledge of local circulation, and their design should be based on climatological information on the variability of this circulation.
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Services and products
This section deals with the professional conditions for implementation of operational systems for GOOS type services and products. The term production line is a standard phrase in most societal services, it is used not only in order to understand the functionality of the service, but also to facilitate quality assurance and control procedures. It also applies to GOOS type services and products. The general concept of a production line is discussed, as well as the characteristics of a GOOS/GCOS ocean climate service production line. Further, a set of specific production lines is described, corresponding to the user scenarios defined above. The coherence or connectivity of the production line is emphasized, as well as the windowing role of the end user services provider. Finally, the perception of the concept and the characteristics of the production line is seen to have some impact on the implementation of GOOS/GCOS type climate services.
1. General concept of a production line.
The general definition of a production line is a string of consecutive actions or procedures to be taken, starting from the recognition of a product requirement from an end user, via provision of raw material such as in situ measured parameters, through pathways of different treatments onto a final, qualified product delivered to an end user. A pathway can be defined in terms of its key actions or junctions where for instance supplementary data enter the production line from other or external sources. The key functions of a general production line are:
- provision of field measurements of parameters relevant to the core content of the targeted end product, such as waves or currents;
- the collection, storage, quality assurance of these data;
- the blending of these data with data from other sources, the processing via numerical and statistical models, value adding, validation, etc.;
- product formatting and presentation/distribution to the end user.
Experience from operational services shows that this general concept applies to nearly every type of operational service provided, and the commonalities appear mostly within data management, quality assurance, and the relations with end users.
2. Production lines for ocean climate services and products.
Requirements for ocean climate services may come from governmental authorities, industry, science, and the public. Services and products in response to such requirements may be implemented on a purely national basis, but most frequently there will be a need for a background or infrastructural system that can provide both data and expertise in support of the actual services. This is well known from services such as weather forecasting and climate services, where the World Weather Watch and its subsidiary programmes constitute the infrastructure. An intermediary regional function is often required, and consequently one might talk of three levels of production line, the global, the regional, and the local or national.
In a simplified description of a three-level production line it could be useful to use the following tabular template explaining typical key functions in each cell. If product requirements are known, the corresponding production line will be a combination or interplay of key actions at different levels.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | Long term inter-national campaigns | World ocean data centres. | Global modelling Capacity building | Summary schemes Relations with end user constituencies |
| B. Regional | Priorities for areas and parameters. Initiatives for new missions. Techno-logical advice | Regional data holding centres. Capacity building Development of tools. | Regional modelling centres. Supplementary data provision as appropriate. Development of model tools. | Large scale products for next level services. Cost benefit studies and promotion for funding etc. |
| C. National or Local | Local and dedicated networks | National centres | Regional and nested models. Statistical models. Value adding, validation of products. User tailoring. | Presentation to end user. Windowing of GOOS climate products. Live user contacts. |
Table 1. Template of a three-level production line for GOOS/GCOS ocean climate services and products.
The next section illustrates how production lines appear in response to the chosen scenarios. Should it appear that required products cannot be delivered, the use of this template will reflect the missing links or missing elements, such as inadequate measurement networks.
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3. Production lines in response to scenarios.
Scenario 1: Local coastline water level variations, seasonally, annually, and in storms.
The product needs both hindcast data to provide a long term time series for the actual site, and measured data to verify hindcast data, as well as variability studies based on measured data in order to compare the actual product with corresponding studies.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | GLOSS programme | World ocean data Centres. QC time series of water level | ||
| B. Regional | Possible provision of boundary value data and forcing data for local model | |||
| C. National or local | Local and dedicated network if existent. | Local or adjoint site data base supplemented with data from level A. | Ocean model to provide hindcast time series if required. Validation of hindcast data by use of sensed data Time series analysis to produce variability | Expert presentation of study to the end user audience, defending method, quality, validity of product, and to identify weaknesses |
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Scenario 2: Monitoring and predicting ocean circulation and its control of the heat flux, in order to find its correlation with the duration of long and cold winters.
This service task requires the contributions both from global atmospheric climate analysis and prediction programmes, as well as regionally based ocean modelling organisations. If it should be done today, it would appear that there are few candidates for the modelling responsibility.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | GCOS time series IODE/IGOSS data | World ocean data Centres. | ||
| B. Regional | Regional data holding centra. Provision of forcing data for ocean model | Regional modelling centra. Basin scales ocean model to produce time series of computed heat fluxes | ||
| C. National or local | Correlation of ocean heat fluxes with GCOS time series for winter durations. | Publication and presentation to target end users |
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Scenario 3: Monitoring and predicting ocean circulation and its impact on rainfall variability on the climatological time scale. (El Niņo effect)
This requires large-scale network measurements for ocean surface temperature, ocean profile data, climatological rainfall time series, and an ocean model tool to assimilate data and compute predictions.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | GCOS rainfall time series. IGOSS/IODE data for SST and profiles | World data centres | ||
| B. Regional | Driving data for ocean model | Ocean modelling to compute circula-tion. Assimilation of sensed data. Validation. Correlation of rainfall and SST | Publication and presentation to user audiences. | |
| C. National or local | Value adding | Local awareness building. |
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Scenario 4: Introduction of ocean parameters to improve ship routing and efficiency of vessel operations.
In principle this requires basin scale wave forecasting with emphasis not only on the general sea state, but also closer emphasis on wave spectral conditions (such as swell and composite sea states).
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | Wave records by space-borne instr. | Via satellite agencies | ||
| B. Regional | Driving data for Regional atmosphere, wave and circulation. | Atmospheric and wave global model, basin scale or global ocean circulation model | ||
| C. National or local | Value adding and formatting. Use of long time series to extract favourable routes. | Climatological advice to shipowners. Along track operational conditions in graphical form, transmitted to bridge. |
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Scenario 5: Introduction of ocean parameters to improve operational performance of offshore operations (in particular in deep water and in Arctic waters).
This requires both improved statistical information and improved monitoring technology. Since the end users are stationary, dedicated monitoring data are emphasised as compared to the previous example. Long time series (mostly by hindcast techniques) are required
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | World data centres | |||
| B. Regional | Collective long term networks for prioritized area | Medium range forecast models | ||
| C. National or local | Dedicated stations | Combination of dedicated and global data sources | Statistical predict-ions for design and predicted performance. Local models for operations. | Design data to oil companies. Daily forecasts on required formats to operation managers. |
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Scenario 6: Improved ENSO forecasting around the Pacific basin and further afield.
This requires a consolidation of the ongoing TAO array backed by satellite SST observations.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | TAO array SST from space | World data centres | NODC | Publication and presentation to regions. |
| B. Regional | Regional initiatives according to given priorities | Follow-up actions on the regional scale. | ||
| C. National or local | Awareness building |
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Scenario 7: Medium to long range forecast of the seasonal to interannual variability in the monsoon system.
This appears as a major hindcast study in order to establish time series for a subsequent variability analysis. The science community may be a primary initial user; but agriculture and health sectors will find a use for the products.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | GCOS data IGOSS/IODE | World data Centres | TBD | |
| B. Regional | Indian Ocean SST time series. | TBD | Presentation and awareness | |
| C. National or local | TBD | Awareness |
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Scenario 8: Impact on coastal circulation systems from changes in the open ocean circulation.
This is to provide a service to port managers in support of safe navigation and environmental protection in the harbour and its surrounding or approach area. Coastal circulation is partly forced by the circulation in the outside open ocean basin, partly by tidal effects, local topography and hydrographic conditions. Pollution emergency response systems depend on the good knowledge of local circulation, and its design should be based on the climatological information on the variability of this circulation.
| Level/Function | Parameter measurements | Data collection and storage | Processing | Product dissemination |
| A. Global | ||||
| B. Regional | Driving data for ocean model | Basin scale ocean model for long time range | ||
| C. National or local | Local network for surface current. Key stations for subsurface profiles. | Not in operation except for test sites. | Nested model for local area. Assimilation of local data | For port authorities: Statistical variability. Nowcast. Support to pollution drift model. |
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4. Coherence of a production line.
It has been demonstrated that most product lines visit different levels, although the end points most often are found at the national and local level. The data flow will follow a data management system which transports data through the different junctions onto the final delivery point.
It is very important that responsible and qualified agencies and experts escort the product to the end user. It could be necessary that the product is defended or explained at this point.
The use of this template also shows that there is synergy to obtain in the sense that multiple products and services can be served by simple coordination of production lines.
5. The windowing function - role of the end user service provider
The operational service agency, governmental or private, charged with the role of delivering the product to the end user, has experience of running operational services according to users? demands. Very often, this is an underestimated quality in planning and implementation of new services. The operational person has a nose for quality assurance and user satisfaction that is indispensable for such services, and also, in the future, for the performance and success of GOOS services. The end users, governmental, industrial, scientific, and public, will build their confidence in GOOS/GCOS products and services according to the behaviour and performance of these people and institutions.
6. Impacts on implementation activities.
The discussion above, in particular the use of the template to visualise the internal life of an operational service, has pointed out some important issues of impact on the implementation of services:
- many services can be implemented from existing elements of measured ocean data or hindcast data;
- others will turn out to be unrealistic due to significant deficiencies, either with regard to data provision or to modelling capacities;
- most products require a powerful data management system that allows the production lines to visit both global, regional and national data sources and modelling centres;
- most services and products require the linkage to meteorological input data to models, including so- called driving or forcing data, such as wind fields to drive a wave model;
- most services require a skilled and representative end delivery point.
In some contexts, if it proves impossible to implement a required service based on existing data or networks, the solution may well be the establishment of new or enhanced field networks and data flows.
