The MILAC proposal

( GSC VII, Brest, April 2004 )

Summary

“Marine Impacts on Lowland Agriculture and Coastal Resources (MILAC)” aims to contribute to Natural Disaster Reduction (NDR) in coastal lowlands where marine impacts from Tropical Cyclones cause severe damage to population, agriculture, freshwater, environment, and infrastructure in general. MILAC therefore calls for the participation of a number of organizations leading to increased synergy from having them work together. Prospective partners are within the meteorological and oceanographic communities as well as international consortia such as the International Secretariat for Disaster Reduction, and the Prevention Consortium.

The MILAC project proposal was endorsed by WMO Cg-XIV. The implementation of this project will be undertaken at the regional level (IOGOOS is considering this as one of their pilot projects), with the intent that regional pilot projects be linked. This “chain of projects”, separated by regions, would become a vehicle for exchange of experience and knowledge on tools and data for the purpose of NDR. Regions will prioritize problems specific to their needs, so problems and solutions are expected to differ, but some elements being common.

• Tropical cyclones climatology including extremes in the region;

• Regional demographics and infrastructure;

• Significance and sensitivity of agro- and aqua-culture;

• Significance and sensitivity of water supplies;

• Miscellaneous and mixed cause impacts

• Identification of most hazardous areas.

A typical result from such a study could be an increased understanding of the risk associated with storm surge hazard in a region. The risk assessment may point to the need to revise current approaches to managing use of hazard-prone lands, managing water resources, and planning of agriculture. Another typical conclusion may be to seek the establishment and preparedness of emergency evacuation mechanisms for populations at risk and agricultural livestock, equipment, and materials.

Annex : MILAC proposal endorsed by WMO Congress 2003

Part I: Proposed actions.

Marine Impacts on Lowland Agriculture and Coastal Resources.

(MILAC)

MILAC Chained Pilot Projects.

Introduction.

MILAC aims to contribute to Natural Disaster Reduction (NDR) in coastal lowlands where marine impacts from Tropical Cyclones cause severe damage to population, agriculture, freshwater, environment, and infrastructure in general. MILAC therefore calls for the participation of a number of organizations leading to increased synergy from having them work together.

A MILAC strategic document has been endorsed by EC-LIV and subsequently submitted to Cg-XIV. As well, an excerpt on this issue is attached to this document stemming from the 2003 meeting of Presidents of WMO Technical Commissions. The present document provides a strategic, action-oriented approach comprising the following consecutive steps:

• identification of the socio-economic problems (connected with tropical cyclones);

• establishment of a comprehensive solution to mitigate problems within a NDR framework;

• development of new and revision of existing policies;

• provision of tools (i.e. observations and numerical models) for the solution;

• testing and implementation of tools;

• integration of tools and policies within an overarching (regional) system for natural disaster mitigation.
  
  

Summary.

It is foreseen that this approach be undertaken at the regional level, with the intent that regional pilot projects be linked. This “chain of projects”, separated by regions, would become a vehicle for exchange of experience and knowledge on tools and data for the purpose of NDR. Regions will prioritize problems specific to their needs, so problems and solutions are expected to differ, but some elements being common.

Each region will undertake a problem identification that may include the following elements;

• Tropical cyclones climatology including extremes in the region;

• Regional demographics and infrastructure;

• Significance and sensitivity of agro- and aqua-culture;

• Significance and sensitivity of water supplies;

• Miscellaneous and mixed cause impacts

• Identification of hazardous areas.

A typical result from such a study could be an increased understanding of the risk associated with storm surge hazard in a region. The risk assessment may point to the need to revise current approaches to managing use of hazard-prone lands, managing water resources, and planning of agriculture. Another typical conclusion may be to seek the establishment and preparedness of emergency evacuation mechanisms for populations at risk and agricultural livestock, equipment, and materials.

Actors.

Although each regional MILAC project should have its autonomous management, there are supporting actors who will facilitate cross-regional exchange of approaches, concepts, tools, and resources. In fact one could figure two classes of actors; one being the internal regional experts, the other being those who can facilitate inter-regional transfers of knowledge and resources.

Within each region and each project one will typically find :

• TCP RSMC’s providing meteorological forcing data;

• GOOS Regional Associations, in particular those covering the tropics;

• WMO Regional Associations (6, with 4 in the tropics);

• CAgM regional experts, OPAG 3 on Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Agriculture;

• CHy experts;

• JCOMM regional experts;

• Other WMO Technical Commissions;

• NDR organizations and regional politicians.

Between each project/region, facilitation of transfer mechanisms would be driven by;

• WMO Secretariat and GOOS Project Office;

• JCOMM/GOOS CB and Services;

• I-GOOS & GRA Federation.

• CAgM and CHy.

• NDR global bodies.

Actions.

A brief outline of actions is given, for each step followed by an illustrating example as perceived for a South China Sea (SCS) country (in cursive).

1. Establishment of regional inter-organizational fora with the task to define the problem to be approached.
   Such a forum would consist of;
   - the proper regional NDR body;
   - the most relevant GRA;
   - the most relevant WMO RA(s);
   - others as appropriate.
   SCS example: The actual NDR body would be a national committee for NDR, the GRA would be the upcoming SEAGOOS. The WMO RA would be RA V.
   
   

2. With participation of TCP, JCOMM and others to “define the problem”.
   In one region it may be found most appropriate to prioritize population safety due to flooding, demographics and infrastructure. In another area it may be found more important to secure freshwater resources exposed to marine impacts from storm surges. Different objectives will lead to different strategies, however there remains a large potential for synergy.
   SCS example: There would be a meeting in one of the capitals of the region, conducted by the regional NDR body, SEAGOOS, TCP and JCOMM, attended by national GRA and JCOMM representatives and the forum defined above. Possible outcomes may be to prioritize activities of high importance, such as population evacuation, structural protective measures such as dredging and dikes, and protection of freshwater reservoirs and sewage treatment plants. Another possibility could be that solutions in one region would not be realistic in another. Priorities could include the development and implementation of policies on acceptable land use practices in hazard prone areas, or providing improved services to reduce losses to the agricultural community. This underlines the importance of the involvement of the regional/national NDR bodies in the planning process.
   
   

3. Establishment of a solution strategy to mitigate the problems.
   If the problem is inaccurate early warnings or warnings that do not provide sufficient lead time to permit the evacuation of large populations , then the strategy would be to seek better 1 – 5 days forecasting tools and deliver mechanisms for forecast products in accordance with NDR requirements. If the problem is escalating losses for events of similar magnitude occurring over several years, then more comprehensive solutions that include forecasting with other non-structural and structural solutions could be considered. If the problem is the need for better management and planning of freshwater resources and agriculture, then the strategy will be to combine hindcasts with medium long term forecasts.
   SCS example: Storm surge and wave models would be sought for the purpose of short-medium term forecasting. A monitoring network could be defined to support forecasting.

4. Developments of tools to implement the strategy.
   Numerical models for storm surges and coastal waves are fed by atmospheric forcing input from numerical weather prediction models operated at all RMSC’s. This means that ALL areas doing MILAC projects need to have access to atmospheric forcing data, and they may ALL need to have wave, storm surge, and hydrological models. These models can be run in hindcast or forecast mode depending on the problem that is to be solved. The need for enhanced modelling capabilities calls for;
   - further improvement of model suites through inter-regional comparison of results;
   - adding specific models for mitigation purposes associated with agricultural and water resource management practices;
   - inverse modelling aiming at defining the optimal ocean observing network in support of improving model performance; and
   - the development of cost/benefit assessments ‘before or after’ incidences;
   While the basic tools (observations, data management, models to predict or hindcast) are important, they are still un complete in relation to most purposes. The ‘error bars’ are likely to be large, and their characteristics (e.g., accuracy) need to be provided to and better understood by NDR bodies, who are taking actions and decisions based on these inputs.
   SCS example: Models would be installed and tested, and an inter-regional group would start working on improvements. An ocean monitoring network could follow, consisting of either in-situ or remotely sensed observations.
   
   

5. Testing and implementation of tools.
   Observation/monitoring networks must be operated in a responsible manner with high regard to Quality Assurance. Numerical models must be tested and their accuracy established. Ensemble techniques are applied to give the best estimates of error bars.
   SCS example: Experiments and early warning systems could be arranged. There should be agreements on regional shares of responsibilities.
   
   

6. Integration of tools in an overarching system for NDR.
   If a regional NDR official body is present, it must be negotiated with them how to introduce the MILAC tools output into their procedures in a situation of disaster. This relates to delivery mode, updating according to proximity of the TC etc.
   SCS example: NDR organizations of the region should be aware of the activities at an early stage and be prepared to include the setup in their infrastructure.
   
   

7. Inter-linkage of MILAC regional projects.
   Overarching bodies such as the International Secretariat for Natural Disaster Reduction, the GRA Federation, JCOMM and TCP, will facilitate the exchange of plans, knowledge and experience gained through meetings, reports and web sites.

Actors and their roles

The following table indicates successive steps to be taken in MILAC projects, and indications of actors and roles. Not all perceived partners have confirmed their interest.

Table 1.

Target areas/regions.

The table below shows perceived areas of interest to MILAC projects, with indications of actors and status of initiatives already taken. WMO RA’s are existing intergovernmental bodies. GOOS RA’s have either recently been given formal status, or are under development leading to a formal status. A possible GOOS RA Network Development may help to consolidate the chain of GOOS RA’s.

Table 2.

Funding strategy.

Some initial actions should be derived from synergy. When items and their costs are outlined within a comprehensive plan, items must be covered primarily by external sources and should not be dependent on the regular budgets of IOC and WMO.

Coordination Mechanism

A facilitating mechanism could be the newly established Resourcing Team under JCOMM CB.

List of acronyms (in order of appearance).

(If not explained in the text).

EC-LIV : WMO Executive Council 53 (year 2002)-

Cg – XIV : WMO 14^th Congress (2003).

TCP : Tropical Cyclone Programme.

TCP RSMC : Regional Center for monitoring and forecasting of Tropical Cyclones.

CAgM : WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology.

OPAG: Open Programme Area Group.

CHy: WMO Commission of Hydrology.

SEAGOOS: South East Asia GOOS.

RA: WMO Regional Associations (6 in total).

GRA: GOOS Regional Alliances (In similarity to WMO RA’s)

IOGOOS: Indian Ocean GOOS.